Seagate (STX) fell 10.2% to close at $848.99 on Friday, October 2, a drop of about $97 from the prior close of $945.57. The drop followed a Nikkei report that Toshiba plans to double its hard drive capacity for AI data centers by the end of its fiscal 2027, the link Yahoo Finance drew in its coverage that day.
The drop is worth a look. Toshiba's plan also does nothing for anyone shopping for a drive right now.
| STX snapshot | Figure |
|---|---|
| Oct. 2 close | $848.99 |
| Previous close | $945.57 |
| Oct. 2 volume | 13.6 million shares, 3.6x the 20-day average |
| Oct. 7 midday | $801.26 |
| 52-week range | $209 to $1,145 |
| Market value | $182.2 billion at $801.26, Oct. 7 midday |
Why drive makers soared
AI companies need huge amounts of cheap storage. Memory chips are scarce, and solid-state drives cost roughly 20 times more than hard drives, so data centers have been buying high-capacity hard drives as fast as they're made. Seagate's nearline capacity (the big drives data centers buy) was nearly all spoken for through calendar 2027 as of April. Western Digital (WDC) told investors in February it was "pretty much sold out" for 2026.
Seagate's leadership has been frank that scarcity drives the business. "The total number of units is not really increasing," CEO Dave Mosley said on the company's April 28 earnings call, as quoted by Yahoo Finance. Before Friday, Seagate was up about 210% this year and Western Digital about 150%.
What Toshiba actually plans
Toshiba says it will spend ¥60 billion (roughly US$380 million) expanding its plant in the Philippines. It's the company's first big hard drive investment in about five years. Toshiba holds just over 10% of the market by capacity and is aiming for 30% over the medium term. Its fiscal 2027 runs to March 2028.
That timing is why Wall Street pushed back. Bernstein called the selloff "a storm in a teacup," and Morgan Stanley called it "a knee-jerk reaction." Citi said the industry is still "under-shipping demand by a wide margin". Seagate rose about 5% on Monday after those notes, then slid again this week.
One more detail went around online. CEO Dave Mosley sold shares the day before the drop, at about $898 to $928 each. MarketBeat's headline tied the fall to that insider selling, but an SEC filing shows the sales ran under a trading plan he adopted on February 18, so they were scheduled months in advance.
What it means if you're buying a drive
Don't expect relief this year. By February, consumer hard drive prices were already up 46% from September 2025, and PC makers including Dell and Lenovo had raised prices. It hasn't eased since: a late September check by price tracker HDDHunt put a typical high-capacity drive at about $50 per terabyte, against deals under $14 per terabyte in 2024. Toshiba's new lines won't be fully running until early 2028, and the drives they make are aimed at data centers, not your desk. SSDs aren't an escape either. In Germany, ComputerBase found SSD prices up 129% in the year to mid-September, close to the 134% jump for hard drives.
The next scheduled catalyst is Seagate's quarterly report, expected October 27. Watch for whether it says its capacity is still sold out, and whether it plans to build more.
Also watch the outlook. Seagate trades at about 58 times the past year's earnings but about 26 times what analysts expect over the next year, according to Yahoo Finance. That gap means Wall Street is counting on profits more than doubling, so what Seagate says about pricing and demand on October 27 could matter more than the quarter it just finished.
Sources
- 1.Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) Stock Price, News, Quote · Yahoo Finance
- 2.Seagate Technology (NASDAQ:STX) Shares Down 10.2% After Insider Selling · MarketBeat
- 3.Toshiba to double hard-disk drive supply to fill AI chip memory gap · Nikkei Asia
- 4.Toshiba to Double AI Data Center HDD Capacity by FY2027 With $380M Expansion · TrendForce
- 5.Seagate Tumbles 10%, Western Digital Drops 7% as Toshiba Moves to Double Hard Disk Output · Yahoo Finance
- 6.Hard Drives Are Sold Out for 2026 · Gadget Review via Yahoo Finance
- 7.Western Digital Jumps 7%, Seagate Climbs 5% as Bernstein Calls Toshiba Selloff a Storm in a Teacup · Yahoo Finance
- 8.Seagate Technology Holdings plc Form 4 (William D. Mosley) · U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
- 9.Hard drive and SSD prices in 2026: why they doubled and when they ease · Harddisk Index
- 10.Why HDD Prices Are Rising in 2026 (And How to Still Find Deals) · HDDHunt
Reported by the WattsUpNext desk from the sources linked below. Spot an error? Tell us at corrections@wattsupnext.com.
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