Busy day for Tesla. Here's what you need to know before your coffee goes cold.
Tesla says its robotaxis now run in seven US cities. A shareholder letter posted Monday says the service includes Cybercabs with no steering wheel or pedals, and counts nearly 1.5 million paying Full Self-Driving customers. Those are Tesla's own figures, and the Cybercab itself only arrived in early September. Tesla's second-quarter report lists the markets as Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Orlando, Tampa and the San Francisco Bay Area.
The fleet is still small. On its second-quarter call, Tesla reported roughly 380,000 miles (611,000 km) of unsupervised robotaxi driving, and management called New Jersey's rules "a little bit disheartening". Keep that in mind next time you hear a big robotaxi promise: Musk once said a million would be on the road by 2020, and the service only launched last year. Approvals for FSD in China and Europe are still pending.
Earnings come Wednesday after the close. Analysts expect revenue to slip a little from the previous quarter, and Morningstar expects another quarter of negative free cash flow. Our earnings preview covers what else to listen for, including the Roadster reveal and the Optimus pitch.
Tesla's proxy put a price tag on Musk's pay. The filing lists about $158 billion in 2025 compensation, counted at grant-date value, and that includes an interim award worth roughly $26 billion that was forfeited in April. Shareholders vote on re-electing him, chair Robyn Denholm and J.B. Straubel at the Dec. 3 annual meeting. The big number is an accounting valuation, not cash in hand.
Cathie Wood's ARK thinks Tesla and SpaceX could merge within five years. Its report says robotaxi cash flow could help fund SpaceX's orbital data centers, while SpaceX's AI models could help Optimus, and its base case puts Tesla at $4,400 a share by 2031. That is a forecast from a firm that holds Tesla shares, and ARK says its bull and bear cases are simulation outputs with no guarantee. Investor Gary Black says he has long seen a deal as inevitable but warns an all-stock deal could dilute the benefit to Tesla holders.
Would you ride in a Cybercab with no wheel today, or wait until it has a longer record behind it?
The WattsUpNext take: Tesla's robotaxi story is moving faster on paper than on the road, and Wednesday's earnings call is a chance to see whether the real fleet is catching up with the forecasts.
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Sources
- 1.SpaceX vs. Tesla: Which Is the Better Elon Musk Stock to Own for the Next 5 Years · The Globe and Mail
- 4.Tesla Stock At $4,400? Cathie Wood's ARK Pins Hopes On Robotaxis, Sees SpaceX Merger In 5 Years · Yahoo Finance
- 5.We have more numbers on Tesla's Robotaxi progress. Here are the 7 that matter most. · Yahoo Finance
- 6.Tesla Sets December 3 Shareholder Vote, and SpaceX Isn't on the Ballot · EVXL
- 7.Tesla asks shareholders to re-elect Musk, Denholm and Straubel at December annual meeting · WBOW 102.7 (Thomson Reuters report)
Reported by the WattsUpNext desk from the sources linked below. Spot an error? Tell us at corrections@wattsupnext.com.
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